#HYHRD: The “you asked for it” opinion edition for $ORC, $BGCP, $AI, $AGNC, $CYS, $O, $NYMT, $LOAN, $CL_F

Ok, I lied, technically I was only asked about $ORC & $BGCP, the other symbols are just thrown in for the hell of it. And randomness.

So, what about that first stock then?

Well, since I don’t give advice, I’ll let you formulate your own opinion(s).

Here’s some help.

First, from finviz.com, let’s take a look at the chart for $ORC;

chart for $ORC

They also offer a look at some fundamentals and aggregate analysis ratings of 1.3 where 1 is BUY and 5 is SELL; http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ORC

They also have some links to news items and down at the bottom of the page there is (usually) some insider trading activity.

It seems to be showing some ‘promise’ since it fell off a cliff last summer, IMHO. Or, maybe I’m just hoping.

barchart.com offers a flipside view and rates it a 56% strong sell, this month.

Here’s a look at their short, medium, long-term, and overall ‘indicators’.

Just last month it was rated a 40% BUY by them.

Now, it’s time for the stockcharts.com classroom. Let’s consult the elders, but first, please read this short intro.

So, what do the ‘elders’ say about $ORC?

If all you want is a slightly lagging indicator, you may want to check out the Price Direction Indicator. After you read that short intro, there’s a link near the bottom of the page so you can set up a PDI chart for any stock you want.

But my favorite confusion is to throw charts around, lots of charts. The trick is to pick out which one is telling a story.

Here’s a bunch of $ORC charts (click to embiggenize), courtesy of the thinkorswim software from TDAmeritrade, sometimes called thinkTDA desktop;


Now, the problem is; “which one(s) tell a story”?

Well, to be honest, they all tell a story. Some just seem to be a “Cliff’s Notes” version, like the middle chart on the bottom.

Here, let me blow it up for you;


This is the 9 month daily chart, and it shows a clear uptrend channel for about the last 6 months or so. It’s also visible, albeit not so clearly, in the 3 month daily chart on the lower right corner of the 6 charts posted above. So, in this case, the 9 month daily chart with both the 9 month and 6 month trendlines showing a change in direction is the most ‘telling’. But don’t go and ‘bet the farm’ on that single piece of information. There’s lots more that will influence the price and profitability of this stock. But, *YOU* have to figure that out for yourself.

If someone were to ask my opinion on say, oil, I’d probably retort with something like “A price near-term in the teens or even $10 or slightly lower is not out of the question and this recent uptrend in the price of $CL_F is merely a blip”. But, I’m (secretly) hoping I’d be wrong.

So, if you ask my opinion about $ORC (which you did) I can only tell you that I hope the price recovers because I am so heavily invested in it that it clouds my ability to offer advice or guidance, especially to myself. Also, I don’t give advice or guidance because I’m not qualified to do so. People that are qualified will sell you an annuity. If you want advice or guidance, go talk to them and buy an annuity. If you want to do it yourself, well you’re on the right track and you should read as much as possible and learn as much as possible and never ask for advice, or guidance. There’s simply too much at stake to just ask and expect a blanket ‘one size fits all’ response to fit your needs. Only you know what you need to know, so go and learn what you need!

Well, I think we’ve almost covered all I wanted to show you about $ORC, and you did ask about another stock, $BGCP. But, before I let you go, I want you to take a look at this Gallery View of daily, weekly, and point & figure charts for $ORC, again courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Now, regarding those other stocks mentioned, I think I’ll just leave you with a starting point for your research. You can pretty much substitute whatever symbol you like in the above examples and charts, etc. and you should be able to discern some semblance of a story or lesson to be learned. But, the CandleGlance charts from stockcharts.com can be tweaked a bit and I’ll start you off with a 2 month view of all 9 symbols with MACD added. You can change your view to a six month timeframe, or 1 year timeframe, or eliminate time from the equation altogether with a point & figure view (P&F charts do not show time in a linear fashion).

I hope this helps!

About PandA Trader

I am, I think... "Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." -- Oscar Wilde
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