#HYHRD: #MarketMusings $CL_F $DJIA $QQQ $SPY

Back in October of 2014 I posted (click here, opens in new window) in response to an email from Chris Perruna, whom I admire greatly, about calling a market top or bottom and his blog post on the subject. Then, on December 14 that same year I posted (click here, opens in new window) a follow-up to that post.

This post attempts to follow-up on those previous posts.

So, where are we, and where are we going?

My immediate thoughts;

Oil = lower for longer

Markets = much lower for much longer

That’s just “off the top of my head”…

Let’s get some cohesive thought going.

Check this posting on StockTwits; http://stocktwits.com/Cookie_M/message/50369510 for some interesting assumptions and observations.

BTW, if you aren’t a member of the StockTwits community, you’re missing out. A lot. Join. Now. Follow. Be followed. Learn. Grow. If you like what Cookie_M says, follow him; http://stocktwits.com/Cookie_M

Here’s the chart from the post in all it’s glory;

Crude Oil observations and comments (not mine)

Crude Oil observations and comments (not mine)

The post itself contains this text; “This could lead S&P to the 1550-1600 level by end June.”

Wow! Could he be right?

Of course, but he could be wrong, too. Let’s see what charts have to say about “the markets”;

First, you can get all of the following charts on StockCharts.com, under “Free Charts”. These are all “Candleglance Groups” and you can go there and play around and change them to your heart’s content.

Ready? Let’s go!

Here’s the CandleGlance: Major US Market Averages with Wilder’s DMI (ADX) added with a two month duration;

2m

Here’s the CandleGlance: Major US Market Averages with Wilder’s DMI (ADX) added with a six month duration;

6m

Here’s the CandleGlance: Major US Market Averages with Wilder’s DMI (ADX) added with a one year duration;

1y

Now, to me, those look horrible. Ugly. Hopeless.

Let’s check the CandleGlance: Market Overview charts.

Here’s the CandleGlance: Market Overview with Wilder’s DMI (ADX) added with a two month duration;

2m

Here’s the CandleGlance: Market Overview with Wilder’s DMI (ADX) added with a six month duration;

6m

Here’s the CandleGlance: Market Overview with Wilder’s DMI (ADX) added with a one year duration;

1y

Well, that still looks pretty bad.

Let’s check the CandleGlance: Market Breadth Indicators next.

Here’s the CandleGlance: Market Breadth Indicators with a two month duration;

2m

Here’s the CandleGlance: Market Breadth Indicators with a six month duration;

6m

Here’s the CandleGlance: Market Breadth Indicators with a one year duration;

1y

So, whaddaya think, huh? Think we’re headed lower? I do, but how much lower?

Well, oil might be somewhere around $10 or $20 by Summer, IMO.

The markets have yet to see a “bottom”, and I am not hopeful for any recovery anytime soon, maybe not even this year. Or next.

But, it’s not all “Doom & Gloom” because every once in a while the “markets” bounce a bit and gives every a “warm fuzzy feeling” for a day, or a week.

Let’s hope Janet can keep from “Yellen”…..

About PandA Trader

I am, I think... "Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." -- Oscar Wilde
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