#HYHRD: $TCAP – Is now the time to buy, sell, or wait?

Hi,

patrosenheim

I’m Pat Rosenheim, a.k.a. the PandA Trader.

From time to time, I am asked my opinion about buying/selling/waiting, but since I am wholly unqualified to provide an opinion, I usually let others who are qualified do that. I’ll always let you know what I do, or might do, but I’d never tell you what to do.

I’ll tell you what I’d do, though…

Usually, the first thing I do is go to Google Finance and call up the page for the item in question;

googlefinance

I click to enlarge that chart. When I do that, first thing I notice is a gap down of $0.64 this past Tuesday, and another gap down of $0.61 today, for a total of $1.25 based on closing prices for those 2 days. I also noticed some serious price decay in November last year.

But, there’s a veritable wealth of information on that one page. In the graphic above, I had made the chart larger so the news items were no longer visible, but if you look at in “normal” view, you can see the news…

googlefinance

…and, if you page down there’s even more information;

googlefinance

That’s quite a lot to digest, and that’s just one web page so far!

But, let’s move on.

I also like to visit stockcharts.com, and pull up the item in question via the Elder Impulse System; http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TCAP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p33959861552

You can click that link, and it will open in a new tab, or you can check out this quick snapshot if you don’t want to investigate that link;

elder

I usually add the Ulcer Index so I can avoid getting an ulcer! (I say, that’s a joke, son!) For more info, you can go to “chart school!”; http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=ulcer+index&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ulcer_index

You can also click on Free Charts at the top of the page, then scroll down and type in your symbol in Gallery View for a look at the Intraday View (if you’re a paying member!), the Daily View, Weekly View, and Point & Figure charts are free to all, and quite useful. I won’t bother to go into much of an explanation on that at this time, but IMHO it’s worth exploring.

Next up is to get some opinions from barchart.com, finviz.com, and Louis Navellier’s Portfolio Grader (all linked).

Here are the results from barchart.com;

barchart

Lot’s of good info there as well. Look on the left; you can see links for technical analysis, and a trader’s cheat sheet to list just two. There’s much more.

Here’s what finviz.com has to show us;

finviz

Down at the lower left there’s a little item that show analyst’s mean recommendation(s). There’s much more if you scroll down.

This is what you’ll see if you type the symbol into Louis Navellier’s Portfolio Grader;

portfoliograder

There’s also a Dividend Grader if you’re so inclined.

All of the above can sometimes show incorrect information, or no info at all, so it is absolutely essential that you do your own due diligence!

There are other websites, with which I’ve had varying amounts of success. Sometimes the above sites can be invaluable, and sometimes they can be worthless. It’s hit or miss, really.

There’s even a website that I like to think of as “Investing for Dummies”, but it’s actually a pretty good teaching tool. Pay them a visit and do your homework; http://www.stockhomework101.com/index.html

My favorite desktop tool was the old thinkorswim software, but it’s now called thinkTDA since it was bought by TDAmeritrade. Still free to download and use, but you’ll need an account. I select “paper trading” because it’s, well, free.

This is how I have mine setup, showing different timeframes and indicators;

tos

Looks quite cluttered, doesn’t it? But, there’s a lot of info to be gleaned from this view; 5 year trend (with 2-1/2 year trend), 4 year trend (with 2 year trend), 3 year trend (with 1-1/2 year trend), 2 year trend (with 1 year trend), 9 month trend (with 6 month trend), 3 month trend (with 2 month, 1 month, and shorter trends). You might think it’s not really usable as it is, but it gives me all I need for a quick glance. I can enlarge any one of the 6 cells, such as the 3 month daily chart, like so;

tos

It’s clearly evident there was a significant spike in volume for the past 5 trading days which may be due to a capital raise. It’s also evident the MACD Histogram has turned very negative, and the Ulcer Index has started to climb (Oy, it’s giving me agita!), and the linear regression reversal (yellow line) is negative, and so is the Parabolic SAR. Also, the 5 day linear regression channel has turned sharply negative, as has the 9 day linear regression channel. The 1 month linear regression channel has also started to turn negative, but the 2 month and 3 month linear regression channels are still positive. Going back to look at the chart above this one we can see the linear regression channels are mostly negative, and the high of $30.70 from early 2013 has been reduced by almost half. But, the most recent lows of $14.91 from January of 2016, $16.40 from November of last year (remember I mentioned “some serious price decay” early in this article?). The most recent low shown on the 3 month daily chart is $17.98. So, what does this tell me? Well, when I see a stock making higher lows in successive periods I see it as a good thing (Thanks, Martha Stewart!) but the fact that it’s making lower highs in 4 successive periods is not such a good thing.

So, what’s the takeaway from all of this rambling? Chinese, Doner Kebab, or pizza? They all sound good actually, but let’s not digress.

Let me show you that last chart again, this time with the data box turned on;

tos

If, and it’s a big if, I was to buy any of this I would wait for; Linear Regression Reversal to turn positive, Parabolic SAR to turn positive, MACD Histogram to turn positive, and SMA9 to cross above SMA20, at the very least. Of course, I would want volume confirmation as well (above average volume). I wouldn’t buy on the first day, either. I’d also want to check the Elder Impulse System (previously referenced above) to see if there was a “buy signal”.

Even with all of that, I’d probably limit my first “nibble” to 100 shares at most. And then I’d wait a bit before taking another “nibble”.

Most importantly, I would want to do some more due diligence on this.

At this time, however, I have no intention of buying this. And, I haven’t even mentioned the dividend or sustainability thereof.

Special Bonus section!

Chartmill is another great site, and sometimes gives invaluable info. This is what they have to say about TCAP;

chartmill

PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND REMEMBER THIS!

I’m not telling anyone to buy anything or giving anyone any advice, because that’s illegal. You see, I have no letters after my name, like RIA, CFA, etc. I SIMPLY DO NOT GIVE ADVICE. I only tell (and show!) what I do. You, like me, are all alone in this.

And remember, always do your own due diligence!

panda_wildePat Rosenheim
(PandA Trader)
High Yield, High Return Dividend
Portfolio
pat@patrosenheim.com
http://www.HYHRD.com
pandawalk

About PandA Trader

I am, I think... "Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." -- Oscar Wilde
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One Response to #HYHRD: $TCAP – Is now the time to buy, sell, or wait?

  1. Pingback: #HYHRD: $PSEC – Is this a nice setup? | #HYHRD – home of the PandA Trader

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