HYHRD: stock chart p0rn $PSEC $AGNC $GLAD $GAIN $GOOD $AMTG $ARR $NLY $O $NYMT

Hi,

12525157_1026367650738063_2933739440530586978_o

I’m Pat Rosenheim, a.k.a. the PandA Trader.

I had an interesting discussion on StockTwits today about $PSEC, and I wanted to share what I learned.

First, Prospect Capital is a BDC that you either love or you hate, there is no middle ground. The “buzz” is that they will shortly announce a(nother) dividend cut. Judging by the self-aggrandizing mail pieces they’ve sent out of late one would think they’re a wonderful company and wouldn’t dream of cutting the dividend.

Several analysts would beg to differ, and if you were to dig around and have a look at things like earnings, you would see that they simply haven’t been, aren’t currently, and probably won’t in the immediate future even come close to covering the 12%+ dividend.

There are some mitigating circumstances to be sure, but that’s not the point of this post. Besides, I’m not smart enough to proselytize about financials, etc. That’s why God created analysts.

They have cut the dividend before. The first cut was when they went from a quarterly dividend of $0.41 in 1Q2010 to a monthly dividend of $0.10 in 3Q2010. It vacillated a little and then slowly rose from $0.10 to $0.111 in 1Q2015 when it was cut to $0.08333 where it is currently floundering.

Quite a few people are upset about exorbitant management fees but John Barry doesn’t seem likely to cut into his robber baron income and there is really very little shareholders can do about it, short of abandoning their positions.

But, let’s get back to the discussion were were having on StockTwits;

It all started innocently enough with this;

stocktwits

Followed by these comments;

@dennismccain look at the first half of your chart…oversold for a long period with improving fundamentals…with deteriorating situation?

— svb64 (@svb64) Aug. 16 at 10:02 PM

@dennismccain this will remain oversold for an extended period.

— svb64 (@svb64) Aug. 16 at 10:04 PM

@svb64 @dennismccain monthly dividends are so annoying

— PandA Trader (Pat Rosenheim) (@panda317) Aug. 16 at 11:26 PM

@panda317 @dennismccain the monthly paychecks are nice…but the gut wrenching loss of capital combined with reduced paycheck is difficult

— svb64 (@svb64) Aug. 16 at 11:33 PM

And then I went into “Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda” mode;

stocktwits

stocktwits

Followed by these replies;

@panda317 @svb64 I can’t remember when I bought it but it’s been years ago. It’s been a great investment. It’s just a little frustrating.

— Dennis McCain (@dennismccain) Aug. 17 at 07:13 AM

@panda317 @svb64 I guess it’s just my attitude. I find AGNC annoying too. I’m less annoyed with my shares in the Gladstone Cos. Not sure why

— Dennis McCain (@dennismccain) Aug. 17 at 07:17 AM

But, I wasn’t done yet!

stocktwits

Then came these 3 comments;

@dennismccain @svb64 if you sell when it’s down, then you realize a loss, but if you never sell a losing position you never realize a loss.

— PandA Trader (Pat Rosenheim) (@panda317) Aug. 17 at 07:21 AM

@panda317 @svb64 I’ll probably never sell. For the most part they’re on dividend reinvestment. They just sorta hang out in my portfolio.

— Dennis McCain (@dennismccain) Aug. 17 at 07:24 AM

@panda317 @svb64 I’m a more active investor in other areas. Some of my other ideas can be found at http://dennismccain.weebly.com

— Dennis McCain (@dennismccain) Aug. 17 at 07:27 AM

And then since AGNC and “the Gladstone Cos.” were mentioned, I threw this up;

stocktwits

Here’s the link to that chart, please click here (it will open in a new tab/window)

And then I posted this;

@dennismccain @svb64 click the link & you’ll see same chart. Right click on chart and lock the y axis, right click again and click animate.

— PandA Trader (Pat Rosenheim) (@panda317) Aug. 17 at 07:34 AM

So, I want you to do exactly that on the chart that opened in a new tab or window. Right click on the chart, and select “Lock the Y axis”, and then right click again on the chart and select “Animate”. Voila! Stock p0rn!

The conversation went on for a bit, and I also posted this;

and remember what I just said about losses, and also remember BTFD, and buy low, sell high. BTW, nice movie. stock p0rn

If you notice the lows of PSEC followed a few months after the dividend cuts, and were the *almost* perfect time to buy.

But, watch the movie a few times and see how things change over time. Notice how the different companies behave in relation to each other, and how some are disconnected at times from the rest. Notice also that some are almost in “lock step” with each other. It makes you think, and it makes you wonder. And, if it does that then you might benefit. Learn from the past, plan for the future.

That’s why I post this stuff.

Enjoy!

Many thanks to @dennismccain & @svb64 on StockTwits for providing the impetus for this post!

PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND REMEMBER THIS!

I’m not telling anyone to buy anything or giving anyone any advice, because that’s illegal. You see, I have no letters after my name, like RIA, CFA, etc. I SIMPLY DO NOT GIVE ADVICE. I only tell (and show!) what I do. You, like me, are all alone in this.

And remember, always do your own due diligence!

panda_wildePat Rosenheim
(PandA Trader)
High Yield, High Return Dividend
Portfolio
pat@patrosenheim.com
http://www.HYHRD.com
pandawalk

About PandA Trader

I am, I think... "Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." -- Oscar Wilde
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