I’m Pat Rosenheim, a.k.a. the PandA Trader.
This Watch List Update will be issued monthly, or as warranted. These results focus more on closed end funds than other issues. This will also be the focus on a “go-forward” basis.
Hindsight can be 20/20, foresight not so much.
I can’t always “hit it out of the park”, but below are my targets.
My expectations for the #HYHRD (High Yield High Return Dividend) Portfolio:
I target a minimal annual return on price and NAV (both `10%?) and a minimum 5% dividend yield for income, or total annualized performance of 15% or greater.
I am hitting some of my targets, and regularly harvest and reinvest (or withdraw) gains.
Title of this post is not all-inclusive of securities selected for further scrutiny…
What follows is one of my methods to screen for possible addition to the watch lists, and the one I am currently using;
I modified the procedures slightly since my last post, and now look for 2 key data points; annualized return and distribution yield. I find both of these combined in the free PerfCharts on stockcharts.com. These charts look for Total Return, which includes dividends in addition to simple return.
To get a baseline, let’s look at the indexes (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) along with their ‘tracking’ CEFs (DIAX, QQQX, SPXX) over the past 200 trading days (about 9-1/2 months which is the default for this chart, and consequently all charts in this post);
Click the chart and you can see the current performance of these benchmarks (opens in a new window).
We can see the current performances as of this writing;
- Nasdaq $COMPQ @ 17.04%
- QQQX @ 9.33%
- DJIA $INDU @ 9.45%
- DIAX @ 17.33%
- S&P 500 $SPX @ 10.8%
- SPXX @ 11.42%
These results give us our numbers to beat for this screening & watch list post (9.33% – 17.33%) for the past 200 days. I should note that I own DIAX, QQQX, & SPXX, as well as BXMX (not charted here because it’s a Buy-Write Fund that seeks to replicate peformance of the S&P500 index using options, aiming for less volatility but usually at the expense of slightly sub-par performance).
Hey, have you heard the one about “past performance is no indication of future results”?
I recently sold off some of the poorest performing holdings in favor of stronger performers and some additions (ABBV, BF.A, BF.B, BFK, BKN, BTA, CXE, DFP, DHF, EAD, EVN, FFC, FIF, FPF, FSD, GLAD, GUT, HIX, HPF, HPI, HPS, HYB, IVH, JPS, LEO, MAV, MMD, NAD, PFD, PMM, PMX, TLI, VGR). I also sold off all NYMTN because the share price had fallen. The dividends were nice ($1,111.10), but performance was lackluster and wasn’t going to improve anytime soon. Closing figures; performance -1.74%, performance + dividend 4.38%. I had too much tied up and wanted better performance. It performed better than ABBV, however, which was a pretty big net loss which is unrecoverable. ABBV still has not recovered. So much for my foray into the “bio” arena. I’d rather stick with my dividend payers, thank you.
I sold off; ABBV, ASG, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BKN, BTA, CXE, DFP, DHF, DHY, EAD, EVN, FFC, FIF, FPF, GLAD, GUT, HIX, HPF, HPI, HPS, HYB, IVH, JPS, LEO, MAV, MMD, NAD, PFD, PMM, PMX, TLI, VGR (FHY was merged with and into FSD, and let’s not forget NYMTN which I already mentioned).
TBH, I could probably have held NYMTN for years and collected the $300 dividend every quarter until they either stopped paying, went bankrupt, or I died. But, I wanted more…
I added IFN, IIF, PCI, PDI, UTG…
This is what I currently own (listed alphabetically in groups of 10);
AGD, ARCC, ARR, AWP, BGH, BST, BXMX, CLM, CRF, CSQ (BST = 35.47%)
DIAX, DNP, ECC, FLC, GAIN, GLOP, GOF, HTD, IFN, IIF
JPC, JPI, KIO, LDP, LOAN, MAIN, MITT, NEWT, NHF, NRO (NEWT = 48.84%, LOAN = 16.63%)
NRZ, NVG, NZF, OIA, OXLC, PCI, PDI, PDT, PFO, PHK (PHK = 28.03%, OXLC = 20.96%)
PHT, PMF, PML, PSF, QQQX, RA, RCKY, RFI, RNP, SAR (RCKY = 70.78%)
SPXX, STK, TPZ, UTF, UTG
At the end of each group of 10 there might be a symbol or more in parentheses with performance data that will make it easy to pick out the top performers from this screen. That gives me 6 top performers so far from what I already own; LOAN, OXLC, PHK, BST, NEWT, RCKY. Let’s see if we can find more…
This is the whole watch list which includes results from previous screens and includes conversations with others (but excludes my current holdings and again listed generally in groups of 10);
AWF, AFT, ACP, BHK, HYT, BTZ, DSU, BME, FRA, BGT
BKT, BLW, BBN, BUI, BSL, BGX, DNP, DBL, EFT, EFR
EVF, EVG, ETO, ETG, ETB, ETV, EVT, EXG, FSD, GLU
GBAB, VLT, HTD, MGF, NHS, JQC, JRO, JFR, JMT, JLS
JMM, NSL, JSD, PFL, PFN, PHD, ISD, PIM, ZTR, IGD
GDO, HYI, IGI, DMO, WEA, PNNT, IRT, CPTA, AOD, SUNS (CPTA = 20.47%)
HRZN, CINR, CIG, BXMT, RVT, AINV, NYMT, AGNC, AINV, FDUS
MRCC, PFLT, TCPC, DWDP, VOD, BCE, HTGC, TWSAX, HEI, VAGIX (HEI = 38.57%)
TWHIX, DTE, ARI, CY, NSA, CHCT, BIF, SOHO, BBK, NQP
CMU, FMN, IQI, PMO, NMZ, DEX, SJR, CII, BME, EOI
EOS, ETY, GRF, FFA, GGT, GPM, IFN, JOF, USA (EOS = 22.82%)
GF, IRL, JCE, JRI, JTD, PCM, PTY, PCN, PDI, PKO
PFL, PFN, RIF, RCS, HQL, VGI, ZF, BTO, CAF, IIF
ANH, CIM, CYS, MCC, MFA, APO, BGCP, OSB, ADX, GSBD
BIT, CHW, CET, FOF, DSL, GAB, GPM, PCI, TDF, NCLH
RCL, CCL, AB, CG, SAMG, AEE, AGR, BHBK, CCOI, EMCF (EMCF = 33.38%, AB = 31.42%, BHBK = 25.58%, CCOI = 21.07%)
FAF, FNF, HE, NTB, QTS, EDF, WPG (NTB = 48.73%, WPG = 26.67%)
PRGTX, GLO, NCZ, CCD, CHI, CHY, BOE, ARDC, ERH, BGB
DDF, GDV, LGI, RMT, TWN, IDE, ACSF, BDJ, MFM, MHI (DDF = 28.07%, ACSF = 23.03%, RMT = 22.85%)
HCFT, ORC, PSEC, RQI, SCM, OXSQ, TWO, AFG, KNOP (OXSQ = 34.01%, PSEC = 31.93%)
IQDE, IGA, KBWY, MGU, FEN, HQH, ANGL, JHB, SBI, VMO
ETW, UTG, JHY, SPHD, VTA
From the most recent ‘purge’;
ABBV, ASG, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BKN, BTA, CXE, DFP, DHF (ASG = 34.68%, BF/B = 21.54%, BF/A = 20.87%)
DHY, EAD, EVN, FFC, FIF, FPF, FSD, GLAD, GUT, HIX
HPF, HPI, HPS, HYB, IVH, JPS, LEO, MAV, MMD, NAD
PFD, PMM, PMX, TLI, VGR
45 Country ETFs
PLND, EWO, TUR, ARGT, PGAL, ECH, PIN, EWN, EWI, EWY
EWH, EWZ, FXI, EWP, EWW, EWT, EWD, EWQ, EWS, EWG
EWK, THD, EIRL, GREK, NORW, EWL, NGE, ENZL, EPU, EWM
GXG, EZA, EWA, EWU, VNM, EPHE, EWJ, SPY, EIDO, UAE
EWC, EIS, EGPT, KSA, ERUS (KSA = 20.55%)
FGD, DVY, VIG
Now I’ll take those performing at or above 50%, and then those performing at or above 40%, and finally those performing at or above 30% for this final round. This is the chart (or charts) of those performing at or above 30.00% for 200 days (RCKY, NEWT, NTB, BST, HEI, EMCF, AB, OXSQ, PSEC, ASG), according to the PerfCharts on stockcharts.com;
If these securities continue to behave in this manner, I could see myself picking up some of them, after some more due diligence, of course. If everything is ‘kosher’, I wouldn’t mind picking up a little of all the outperformers (but, that’s just *me*!).
Please note there may be differences in symbols on different platforms.
I also like to run the final symbols through the CandleGlance Charts on stockcharts.com. I think the 1 year view (with MACD indicator added) gives a very good visual representation of past performance and some insight into future direction. The P&F charts are my favorite tools, albeit somewhat overly optimistic.
Another very good system used to time purchases and sales is the “Elder Impulse System”; http://schrts.co/Cxkytw (I’ve added MACD Histogram, 20-50-200 day Simple Moving Averages, ADX Line (w/+DI and -DI), and Ulcer Index (UI) to enhance the chart. Play around, learn about it, and try it out!
This is only a part of one method. Take a look at the individual account tabs on my Google sheets (and don’t forget to scroll down, and scroll right!) and you’ll see other methods. I also follow good advice from others, while discounting bad advice. After a while, you can tell fairly easily which is which…
As always, YMMV!
PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND REMEMBER THIS!
I’m not telling anyone to buy anything or giving anyone any advice, because that’s illegal. You see, I have no letters after my name, like RIA, CFA, etc. I SIMPLY DO NOT GIVE ADVICE. I only tell (and show!) what I do. You, like me, are all alone in this.
And remember, always do your own due diligence!