I’m Pat Rosenheim, a.k.a. the PandA Trader.
This Watch List Update will be issued monthly, or as warranted. These results focus more on closed end funds and ETFs than other issues. This will also be the focus on a “go-forward” basis.
Hindsight can be 20/20, foresight not so much.
I can’t always “hit it out of the park”, but below are my targets.
My expectations for the #HYHRD (High Yield High Return Dividend) Portfolio:
I target a minimal annual return on price and NAV (both `10%?) and a minimum 5% dividend yield for income, or total annualized performance of 15% or greater.
I am hitting some of my targets, and regularly harvest and reinvest (or withdraw) gains.
Title of this post is not all-inclusive of securities selected for further scrutiny…
What follows is one of my methods to screen for possible addition to the watch lists, and the one I am currently using;
I modified the procedures slightly since my last post, and now look for 2 key data points; annualized return and distribution yield, or Total Return. I find both of these combined in the free PerfCharts on stockcharts.com. These charts look for Total Return, which includes dividends in addition to simple return. But, those charts look at the results after screening. I should probably tell you how I go about screening for stocks, CEFs, & ETFs. Good idea?
I eliminated barcharts.com and finviz.com from my screening repertoire for the most part because their results weren’t consistent enough, IMO. I was getting too much crap to look at and frankly it was just a waste of time, so I’m sticking with Fidelity for screening, and you only need to register with them to use their site to screen for stocks, ETFs, and CEFs. I’m also sticking with cefconnect.com for CEFs, although their data does tend to be lacking in some respects. For the most part, however, it is a respectable source for mostly reliable CEF data. Now, let’s move on…
Here’s my (overly tough?) criteria & (subsequent lack of) results on Fidelity for stock screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for ETF screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for Municipal CEF screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for CEF screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for CEF by asset class screening;
Now, let’s move on to cefconnect.com;
Here’s my results from screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 7%;
Here’s my results from screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 0% for tax-free CEFs;
So now, we have the results from our screens;
IVW,IWP,ITA,IYW,IHI,IGV,IGM,SOXX,IYJ,IYC,JKH,PSJ and PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC and DDF,UTG,RQI,UTF,RFI,RNP,PML and DDF,UTG,UTF,PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC,FFA and (BME,CSQ,UTF,RNP,PSF,STK,DNP,EOS,ETO,EVT,GRF & FPF,HTD,USA,PCM,PTY,PCN,PDI,PKO,PFL,PGZ,DMO) and MYF,BFK,MFT,DSM,VKQ,VPV,NBH and NZF,NMZ,PML,MHI,PMM,PMO,MMU
First, we check the 1 year charts on stockcharts.com and remove duplicate symbols (not shown, too tedious).
(list with duplicates removed) IVW,IWP,ITA,IYW,IHI,IGV,IGM,SOXX,IYJ,IYC,JKH,PSJ,PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC,DDF,UTG,RQI,UTF,RFI,RNP,PML,DDF,UTG,UTF,PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC,FFA,BME,CSQ,UTF,RNP,PSF,STK,DNP,EOS,ETO,EVT,GRF,FPF,HTD,USA,PCM,PTY,PCN,PDI,PKO,PFL,PGZ,DMO,MYF,BFK,MFT,DSM,VKQ,VPV,NBH,NZF,NMZ,PML,MHI,PMM,PMO,MMU
We still need to compare it to our baseline.
To get a baseline, let’s look at the indexes (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) over the past year;
Click the link and you can see the current performance of these benchmarks (opens in a new window).
We can see the current performances as of this writing;
- Nasdaq $COMPQ @ 6.70%
- S&P 500 $SPX @ 8.30%
- DJIA $INDU @ 9.84%
These results give us our numbers to beat for this screening & watch list post (6.70% – 9.84%) for the past 252 trading days (1 year). Then, I double those figures. So, I’m looking to beat 13.40% – 19.68%, so let’s just say 20%, ok?
Hey, have you heard the one about “past performance is no indication of future results”?
Here’s the chart of the final results of screening after removing duplicates and running through the charting;
This is the chart I’ll use (you can use it, too!); https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$INDU&p=5&O=011000
Just replace the symbol with up to 12 symbols (separated by commas!), right click the date slider and select one year (or any time frame you like) and chart away! The result is share price appreciation plus dividends for the time frame selected.
Now, as promised, this is the results of charting the screening results;
This is what I currently own (listed alphabetically in groups of 12) I’ll use that link I previous gave to chart these out and pick any stand-outs for further scrutiny for this and all further groups;
ABR, AGD, ARCC, AWP, BFK, BGH, BSD, BST, BXMX, CSQ, DIAX, DNP
ECC, FLC, FREL, FTF, GAIN, GOF, HTD, HYG, IGN, IHI, IYLD, JLS
JQC, LDP, LGI, LOR, MAIN, MHD, NEWT, NRO, NVG, NZF, OIA, OXLC
PCI, PDI, PDT, PFO, PHK, PHT, PMF, PML, PSF, RFI, RNP, TPZ
UTF, UTG, VPV
This is what I used to own (listed alphabetically in groups of 12);
AGD, ARCC, ARR, ASG, AWP, BGH, BST, BXMX, CLM, CRF, CSQ, DIAX
DNP, ECC, FLC, GAIN, GLOP, GOF, HTD, IFN, IIF, JPC, JPI, KIO
LDP, LOAN, MAIN, MITT, NEWT, NHF, NRO, NRZ, NVG, NZF, OIA, OXLC
PCI, PDI, PDT, PFO, PHK, PHT, PMF, PML, PSF, QQQX, RA, RCKY
RFI, RNP, SAR, SPXX, STK, TPZ, UTF, UTG
I chart these in groups of 12 or less and that gives me the top performers so far from what I already own; ABR, IHI, NEWT, PML, RFI, UTF, & UTG. I also found one underperforming the past year; FTF. Let’s see if we can find more top performers…
and, this is as far as I got… I’ll finish it up later. I just wanted to post this today.
This is the whole watch list which includes results from previous screens and includes conversations with others, but was purged in June of 2019;
AWF, AFT, ACP, BHK, HYT, BTZ, DSU, BME, FRA, BGT, BKT, BLW
BBN, BUI, BSL, BGX, DNP, DBL, EFT, EFR, EVF, EVG, ETO, ETG
ETB, ETV, EVT, EXG, FSD, GLU, GBAB, VLT, MGF, NHS, JQC, JRO
JFR, JMT, JLS, JMM, NSL, JSD, PFL, PFN, PHD, ISD, PIM, ZTR
IGD, GDO, HYI, IGI, DMO, WEA, PNNT, IRT, CPTA, AOD, SUNS, HRZN
CINR, CIG, BXMT, RVT, AINV, NYMT, AGNC, AINV, FDUS, MRCC, PFLT, TCPC
DWDP, VOD, BCE, HTGC, TWSAX, HEI, VAGIX, TWHIX, DTE, ARI, CY, NSA
CHCT, BIF, SOHO, BBK, NQP, CMU, FMN, IQI, PMO, NMZ, DEX, SJR
CII, BME, EOI, EOS, ETY, GRF, FFA, GGT, GPM, IFN, JOF, USA
GF, IRL, JCE, JRI, JTD, PCM, PTY, PCN, PKO, PFL, PFN, RIF
RCS, HQL, VGI, ZF, BTO, CAF, ANH, CIM, CYS, MCC, MFA, APO
BGCP, OSB, ADX, GSBD, BIT, CHW, CET, FOF, DSL, GAB, GPM, TDF
NCLH, RCL, CCL, AB, CG, SAMG, AEE, AGR, BHBK, CCOI, EMCF, FAF
FNF, HE, NTB, QTS, EDF, WPG, PRGTX, GLO, NCZ, CCD, CHI, CHY
BOE, ARDC, ERH, BGB, DDF, GDV, LGI, RMT, TWN, IDE, BDJ, MFM
MHI, HCFT, ORC, PSEC, RQI, SCM, OXSQ, TWO, AFG, KNOP, IQDE, IGA
KBWY, MGU, FEN, HQH, ANGL, JHB, SBI, VMO, ETW, UTG, JHY, SPHD
VTA, CHGG, KRP, MDB, ABBV, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BKN, BTA, CXE, DFP
DHF, DHY, EAD, EVN, FFC, FIF, FPF, FSD, GLAD, GUT, HIX, HPF
HPI, HPS, HYB, IVH, JPS, LEO, MAV, MMD, NAD, PFD, PMM, PMX
TLI, VGR, GAM
This is an old, old, watchlist;
AWF, AFT, ACP, BHK, HYT, BTZ, DSU, BME, FRA, BGT
BKT, BLW, BBN, BUI, BSL, BGX, DNP, DBL, EFT, EFR
EVF, EVG, ETO, ETG, ETB, ETV, EVT, EXG, FSD, GLU
GBAB, VLT, HTD, MGF, NHS, JQC, JRO, JFR, JMT, JLS
JMM, NSL, JSD, PFL, PFN, PHD, ISD, PIM, ZTR, IGD
GDO, HYI, IGI, DMO, WEA, PNNT, IRT, CPTA, AOD, SUNS
HRZN, CINR, CIG, BXMT, RVT, AINV, NYMT, AGNC, AINV, FDUS
MRCC, PFLT, TCPC, DWDP, VOD, BCE, HTGC, TWSAX, HEI, VAGIX
TWHIX, DTE, ARI, CY, NSA, CHCT, BIF, SOHO, BBK, NQP
CMU, FMN, IQI, PMO, NMZ, DEX, SJR, CII, BME, EOI
EOS, ETY, GRF, FFA, GGT, GPM, IFN, JOF, USA
GF, IRL, JCE, JRI, JTD, PCM, PTY, PCN, PKO
PFL, PFN, RIF, RCS, HQL, VGI, ZF, BTO, CAF
ANH, CIM, CYS, MCC, MFA, APO, BGCP, OSB, ADX, GSBD
BIT, CHW, CET, FOF, DSL, GAB, GPM, TDF, NCLH
RCL, CCL, AB, CG, SAMG, AEE, AGR, BHBK, CCOI, EMCF
FAF, FNF, HE, NTB, QTS, EDF, WPG
PRGTX, GLO, NCZ, CCD, CHI, CHY, BOE, ARDC, ERH, BGB
DDF, GDV, LGI, RMT, TWN, IDE, BDJ, MFM, MHI
HCFT, ORC, PSEC, RQI, SCM, OXSQ, TWO, AFG, KNOP
IQDE, IGA, KBWY, MGU, FEN, HQH, ANGL, JHB, SBI, VMO
ETW, UTG, JHY, SPHD, VTA, CHGG, KRP, MDB
From the next most recent ‘purge’;
ABBV, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BKN, BTA, CXE, DFP, DHF
DHY, EAD, EVN, FFC, FIF, FPF, FSD, GLAD, GUT, HIX
HPF, HPI, HPS, HYB, IVH, JPS, LEO, MAV, MMD, NAD
PFD, PMM, PMX, TLI, VGR
45 Country ETFs
PLND, EWO, TUR, ARGT, PGAL, ECH, PIN, EWN, EWI, EWY, EWH, EWZ
FXI, EWP, EWW, EWT, EWD, EWQ, EWS, EWG, EWK, THD, EIRL, GREK
NORW, EWL, NGE, ENZL, EPU, EWM, GXG, EZA, EWA, EWU, VNM, EPHE
EWJ, SPY, EIDO, UAE, EWC, EIS, EGPT, KSA, ERUS
FGD, DVY, VIG
Now I’ll take those performing at or above 50%, and then those performing at or above 40%, and finally those performing at or above 27.79% for this final round. This is the chart (or charts) of those performing at or above 27.79% for 200 days (RCKY, HEI, CHGG, MDB, NTB, BST, AB, DDF, OXSQ, KRP), according to the PerfCharts on stockcharts.com;
If these securities continue to behave in this manner, I could see myself picking up some of them, after some more due diligence, of course. If everything is ‘kosher’, I wouldn’t mind picking up a little of all the outperformers (but, that’s just *me*!).
Please note there may be differences in symbols on different platforms.
I also like to run the final symbols through the CandleGlance Charts on stockcharts.com. I think the 1 year view (with MACD indicator added) gives a very good visual representation of past performance and some insight into future direction. The P&F charts are my favorite tools, albeit somewhat overly optimistic.
Another very good system used to time purchases and sales is the “Elder Impulse System”; http://schrts.co/Cxkytw (I’ve added MACD Histogram, 20-50-200 day Simple Moving Averages, ADX Line (w/+DI and -DI), and Ulcer Index (UI) to enhance the chart. Play around, learn about it, and try it out!
This is only a part of one method. Take a look at the individual account tabs on my Google sheets (and don’t forget to scroll down, and scroll right!) and you’ll see other methods. I also follow good advice from others, while discounting bad advice. After a while, you can tell fairly easily which is which…
As always, YMMV!
PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND REMEMBER THIS!
I’m not telling anyone to buy anything or giving anyone any advice, because that’s illegal. You see, I have no letters after my name, like RIA, CFA, etc. I SIMPLY DO NOT GIVE ADVICE. I only tell (and show!) what I do. You, like me, are all alone in this.
And remember, always do your own due diligence!