I’m Pat Rosenheim, a.k.a. the PandA Trader.
This Watch List Update will be issued monthly, or as warranted. These results focus more on closed end funds and ETFs than other issues. This will also be the focus on a “go-forward” basis.
UPDATE: 7/7/19 – I only got partway through this process when it was posted but I wanted to get it up and going. I ran it again today and got different results (of course!) which I have appended to the original results, but the screenshots haven’t changed, so you might want to skip down past the screening screenshots to see where I’ve made some changes…
Hindsight can be 20/20, foresight not so much.
I can’t always “hit it out of the park”, but below are my targets.
My expectations for the #HYHRD (High Yield High Return Dividend) Portfolio:
I target a minimal annual return on price and NAV (both `10%?) and a minimum 5% dividend yield for income, or total annualized performance of 15% or greater.
I am hitting some of my targets, and regularly harvest and reinvest (or withdraw) gains.
Title of this post is not all-inclusive of securities selected for further scrutiny…
What follows is one of my methods to screen for possible addition to the watch lists, and the one I am currently using;
I modified the procedures slightly since my last post, and now look for 2 key data points; annualized return and distribution yield, or Total Return. I find both of these combined in the free PerfCharts on stockcharts.com. These charts look for Total Return, which includes dividends in addition to simple return. But, those charts look at the results after screening. I should probably tell you how I go about screening for stocks, CEFs, & ETFs. Good idea?
I eliminated barcharts.com and finviz.com from my screening repertoire for the most part because their results weren’t consistent enough, IMO. I was getting too much crap to look at and frankly it was just a waste of time, so I’m sticking with Fidelity for screening, and you only need to register with them to use their site to screen for stocks, ETFs, and CEFs. I’m also sticking with cefconnect.com for CEFs, although their data does tend to be lacking in some respects. For the most part, however, it is a respectable source for mostly reliable CEF data. Now, let’s move on…
Here’s my (overly tough?) criteria & (subsequent lack of) results on Fidelity for stock screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for ETF screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for Municipal CEF screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for CEF screening;
Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for CEF by asset class screening;
Now, let’s move on to cefconnect.com;
Here’s my results from screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 7%;
Here’s my results from screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 0% for tax-free CEFs;
So now, we have the results from our screens;
IVW,IWP,ITA,IYW,IHI,IGV,IGM,SOXX,IYJ,IYC,JKH,PSJ and PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC and DDF,UTG,RQI,UTF,RFI,RNP,PML and DDF,UTG,UTF,PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC,FFA and (BME,CSQ,UTF,RNP,PSF,STK,DNP,EOS,ETO,EVT,GRF & FPF,HTD,USA,PCM,PTY,PCN,PDI,PKO,PFL,PGZ,DMO) and MYF,BFK,MFT,DSM,VKQ,VPV,NBH and NZF,NMZ,PML,MHI,PMM,PMO,MMU
So, let’s put these in order;
IVW,IWP,ITA,IYW,IHI,IGV,IGM,SOXX,IYJ,IYC,JKH,PSJ became IWF,IVW,IWP,IUSG,IYW,IHI,IGV,IXN,IGM,SOXX,JKE,IYC,IYJ,XMMO,JKH,PSJ,PTF,IAK
PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC became PCQ,PML,MUA,BTA,NZF,NMZ,BSD,PMO
DDF,UTG,RQI,UTF,RFI,RNP,PML became DDF,UTF,UTG,CET,MPV,DNP
DDF,UTG,UTF,PML,PCQ,MUA,NMZ,PZC,FFA became DDF,UTF,UTG,PTY,PCQ,PML,MUA,BTA,FFA,NZF,NMZ,EOS,BSD,PMO
(BME,CSQ,UTF,RNP,PSF,STK,DNP,EOS,ETO,EVT,GRF & FPF,HTD,USA,PCM,PTY,PCN,PDI,PKO,PFL,PGZ,DMO) became (CSQ,UTF,RNP,PSF,DNP,EOS,ETO,EVT,GRF,FPF & HTD,USA,PCM,PTY,PCN,PDI,PKO,PFL,PGZ,DMO) it’s broken up in 2 parts because there’s so many and then I enclosed the 2 parts in parentheses
MYF,BFK,MFT,DSM,VKQ,VPV,NBH and NZF,NMZ,PML,MHI,PMM,PMO,MMU again, it’s broken up in 2 parts because there’s so many and then I enclosed the 2 parts in parentheses which then became DSM,VKQ,VPV,NBH,NZF,NMZ,PML,MMU
Now, the below part has changed. First, we remove the duplicates on my spreadsheet. There’s a tab labeled ‘remove duplicates in C1’ and I paste the whole comma-delimited list into the cell ‘C1’ and the results are automatically sorted alphabetically into cell ‘C4’. You can copy the formula if you like, it’s;
“=join(“, “,SORT(UNIQUE(TRANSPOSE(SPLIT($C$1,“, “)))))”
Then we check the 1 year charts on stockcharts.com!
First, we check the 1 year charts on stockcharts.com and remove duplicate symbols (not shown, too tedious).
(list with duplicates removed – didn’t work too well on my last post, apologies)
BFK, BME, CSQ, DDF, DMO, DNP, DSM, EOS, ETO, EVT, FFA, FPF, GRF, HTD, IGM, IGV, IHI, ITA, IVW, IWP, IYC, IYJ, IYW, JKH, MFT, MHI, MMU, MUA, MYF, NBH, NMZ, NZF, PCM, PCN, PCQ, PDI, PFL, PGZ, PKO, PML, PMM, PMO, PSF, PSJ, PTY, PZC, RFI, RNP, RQI, SOXX, STK, USA, UTF, UTG, VKQ, VPV
(updated list with duplicates removed)
BFK, BME, BSD, BTA, CET, CSQ, DDF, DMO, DNP, DSM, EOS, ETO, EVT, FFA, FPF, GRF, HTD, IAK, IGM, IGV, IHI, ITA, IUSG, IVW, IWF, IWP, IXN, IYC, IYJ, IYW, JKE, JKH, MFT, MHI, MMU, MPV, MUA, MYF, NBH, NMZ, NZF, PCM, PCN, PCQ, PDI, PFL, PGZ, PKO, PML, PMM, PMO, PSF, PSJ, PTF, PTY, PZC, RFI, RNP, RQI, SOXX, STK, USA, UTF, UTG, VKQ, VPV, XMMO
We still need to compare it to our baseline.
To get a baseline, let’s look at the indexes (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) over the past year;
Click the link and you can see the current performance of these benchmarks (opens in a new window).
We can see the current performances as of this writing;
- Nasdaq $COMPQ @
- S&P 500 $SPX @
- DJIA $INDU @
These results give us our numbers to beat for this screening & watch list post (
6.70% – 9.84%) (7.58% 10.53%) – for the past 252 trading days (1 year). Then, I double those figures. So, I’m looking to beat 13.40% – 19.68% 15.16% – 21.06%, so let’s just say 20% 21%, ok?
Hey, have you heard the one about “past performance is no indication of future results”?
Here’s the chart of the final results of screening after removing duplicates and running through the charting;
This is the chart I’ll use (you can use it, too!); https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$INDU&p=5&O=011000
Just replace the symbol with up to 12 symbols (separated by commas!), right click the date slider and select one year (or any time frame you like) and chart away! The result is share price appreciation plus dividends for the time frame selected.
Now, as promised, this is the results of charting the screening results;
And, of course, I got different results this week which were compared to the different benchmark results;
I got just a little further than this with the last post, but since I have that nifty feature on my Google sheets for sorting and trimming and removing duplicates from my comma-delimited list of symbols I’m going to take full advantage of that. This whole section will NOT APPEAR in future editions of this post. It will be different. There may be some parts remaining, but it will be quite different.
This is the part that will be removed;
This is what I currently own (listed alphabetically in groups of 12) I’ll use that link I previous gave to chart these out and pick any stand-outs for further scrutiny for this and all further groups;
ABR, AGD, ARCC, AWP, BFK, BGH, BSD, BST, BXMX, CSQ, DIAX, DNP
ECC, FLC, FREL, FTF, GAIN, GOF, HTD, HYG, IGN, IHI, IYLD, JLS
JQC, LDP, LGI, LOR, MAIN, MHD, NEWT, NRO, NVG, NZF, OIA, OXLC
PCI, PDI, PDT, PFO, PHK, PHT, PMF, PML, PSF, RFI, RNP, TPZ
UTF, UTG, VPV
This is what I used to own (listed alphabetically in groups of 12);
AGD, ARCC, ARR, ASG, AWP, BGH, BST, BXMX, CLM, CRF, CSQ, DIAX
DNP, ECC, FLC, GAIN, GLOP, GOF, HTD, IFN, IIF, JPC, JPI, KIO
LDP, LOAN, MAIN, MITT, NEWT, NHF, NRO, NRZ, NVG, NZF, OIA, OXLC
PCI, PDI, PDT, PFO, PHK, PHT, PMF, PML, PSF, QQQX, RA, RCKY
RFI, RNP, SAR, SPXX, STK, TPZ, UTF, UTG
I chart these in groups of 12 or less and that gives me the top performers so far from what I already own; ABR, IHI, NEWT, PML, RFI, UTF, & UTG. I also found one underperforming the past year; FTF. Let’s see if we can find more top performers…
and, this is as far as I got… I’ll finish it up later. I just wanted to post this today.
This is the whole watch list which includes results from previous screens and includes conversations with others, but was purged in June of 2019;
AWF, AFT, ACP, BHK, HYT, BTZ, DSU, BME, FRA, BGT, BKT, BLW
BBN, BUI, BSL, BGX, DNP, DBL, EFT, EFR, EVF, EVG, ETO, ETG
ETB, ETV, EVT, EXG, FSD, GLU, GBAB, VLT, MGF, NHS, JQC, JRO
JFR, JMT, JLS, JMM, NSL, JSD, PFL, PFN, PHD, ISD, PIM, ZTR
IGD, GDO, HYI, IGI, DMO, WEA, PNNT, IRT, CPTA, AOD, SUNS, HRZN
CINR, CIG, BXMT, RVT, AINV, NYMT, AGNC, AINV, FDUS, MRCC, PFLT, TCPC
DWDP, VOD, BCE, HTGC, TWSAX, HEI, VAGIX, TWHIX, DTE, ARI, CY, NSA
CHCT, BIF, SOHO, BBK, NQP, CMU, FMN, IQI, PMO, NMZ, DEX, SJR
CII, BME, EOI, EOS, ETY, GRF, FFA, GGT, GPM, IFN, JOF, USA
GF, IRL, JCE, JRI, JTD, PCM, PTY, PCN, PKO, PFL, PFN, RIF
RCS, HQL, VGI, ZF, BTO, CAF, ANH, CIM, CYS, MCC, MFA, APO
BGCP, OSB, ADX, GSBD, BIT, CHW, CET, FOF, DSL, GAB, GPM, TDF
NCLH, RCL, CCL, AB, CG, SAMG, AEE, AGR, BHBK, CCOI, EMCF, FAF
FNF, HE, NTB, QTS, EDF, WPG, PRGTX, GLO, NCZ, CCD, CHI, CHY
BOE, ARDC, ERH, BGB, DDF, GDV, LGI, RMT, TWN, IDE, BDJ, MFM
MHI, HCFT, ORC, PSEC, RQI, SCM, OXSQ, TWO, AFG, KNOP, IQDE, IGA
KBWY, MGU, FEN, HQH, ANGL, JHB, SBI, VMO, ETW, UTG, JHY, SPHD
VTA, CHGG, KRP, MDB, ABBV, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BKN, BTA, CXE, DFP
DHF, DHY, EAD, EVN, FFC, FIF, FPF, FSD, GLAD, GUT, HIX, HPF
HPI, HPS, HYB, IVH, JPS, LEO, MAV, MMD, NAD, PFD, PMM, PMX
TLI, VGR, GAM
This is an old, old, watchlist;
AWF, AFT, ACP, BHK, HYT, BTZ, DSU, BME, FRA, BGT
BKT, BLW, BBN, BUI, BSL, BGX, DNP, DBL, EFT, EFR
EVF, EVG, ETO, ETG, ETB, ETV, EVT, EXG, FSD, GLU
GBAB, VLT, HTD, MGF, NHS, JQC, JRO, JFR, JMT, JLS
JMM, NSL, JSD, PFL, PFN, PHD, ISD, PIM, ZTR, IGD
GDO, HYI, IGI, DMO, WEA, PNNT, IRT, CPTA, AOD, SUNS
HRZN, CINR, CIG, BXMT, RVT, AINV, NYMT, AGNC, AINV, FDUS
MRCC, PFLT, TCPC, DWDP, VOD, BCE, HTGC, TWSAX, HEI, VAGIX
TWHIX, DTE, ARI, CY, NSA, CHCT, BIF, SOHO, BBK, NQP
CMU, FMN, IQI, PMO, NMZ, DEX, SJR, CII, BME, EOI
EOS, ETY, GRF, FFA, GGT, GPM, IFN, JOF, USA
GF, IRL, JCE, JRI, JTD, PCM, PTY, PCN, PKO
PFL, PFN, RIF, RCS, HQL, VGI, ZF, BTO, CAF
ANH, CIM, CYS, MCC, MFA, APO, BGCP, OSB, ADX, GSBD
BIT, CHW, CET, FOF, DSL, GAB, GPM, TDF, NCLH
RCL, CCL, AB, CG, SAMG, AEE, AGR, BHBK, CCOI, EMCF
FAF, FNF, HE, NTB, QTS, EDF, WPG
PRGTX, GLO, NCZ, CCD, CHI, CHY, BOE, ARDC, ERH, BGB
DDF, GDV, LGI, RMT, TWN, IDE, BDJ, MFM, MHI
HCFT, ORC, PSEC, RQI, SCM, OXSQ, TWO, AFG, KNOP
IQDE, IGA, KBWY, MGU, FEN, HQH, ANGL, JHB, SBI, VMO
ETW, UTG, JHY, SPHD, VTA, CHGG, KRP, MDB
From the next most recent ‘purge’;
ABBV, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BKN, BTA, CXE, DFP, DHF
DHY, EAD, EVN, FFC, FIF, FPF, FSD, GLAD, GUT, HIX
HPF, HPI, HPS, HYB, IVH, JPS, LEO, MAV, MMD, NAD
PFD, PMM, PMX, TLI, VGR
45 Country ETFs
PLND, EWO, TUR, ARGT, PGAL, ECH, PIN, EWN, EWI, EWY, EWH, EWZ
FXI, EWP, EWW, EWT, EWD, EWQ, EWS, EWG, EWK, THD, EIRL, GREK
NORW, EWL, NGE, ENZL, EPU, EWM, GXG, EZA, EWA, EWU, VNM, EPHE
EWJ, SPY, EIDO, UAE, EWC, EIS, EGPT, KSA, ERUS
FGD, DVY, VIG
Now I’ll take those performing at or above 50%, and then those performing at or above 40%, and finally those performing at or above 27.79% for this final round. This is the chart (or charts) of those performing at or above 27.79% for 200 days (RCKY, HEI, CHGG, MDB, NTB, BST, AB, DDF, OXSQ, KRP), according to the PerfCharts on stockcharts.com;
This is where I’d put in a chart showing how well some of them had performed in the past. This is another part that won’t appear…
If these securities continue to behave in this manner, I could see myself picking up some of them, after some more due diligence, of course. If everything is ‘kosher’, I wouldn’t mind picking up a little of all the outperformers (but, that’s just *me*!).
Please note there may be differences in symbols on different platforms.
I also like to run the final symbols through the CandleGlance Charts on stockcharts.com. I think the 1 year view (with MACD indicator added) gives a very good visual representation of past performance and some insight into future direction. The P&F charts are my favorite tools, albeit somewhat overly optimistic.
Another very good system used to time purchases and sales is the “Elder Impulse System”; http://schrts.co/Cxkytw (I’ve added MACD Histogram, 20-50-200 day Simple Moving Averages, ADX Line (w/+DI and -DI), and Ulcer Index (UI) to enhance the chart. Play around, learn about it, and try it out!
So, instead of all that, I have this list of symbols (including currently owned);
AB, ABBV, ABR, ACP, ADX, AEE, AFG, AFT, AGD, AGNC, AGR, AINV, ANGL, ANH, AOD, APO, ARCC, ARDC, ARGT, ARI, ARR, ASG, AWF, AWP, BBK, BBN, BCE, BDJ, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BGB, BGCP, BGH, BGT, BGX, BHBK, BHK, BIF, BIT, BKN, BKT, BLW, BME, BOE, BSD, BSL, BST, BTA, BTO, BTZ, BUI, BXMT, BXMX, CAF, CCD, CCL, CCOI, CET, CG, CHCT, CHGG, CHI, CHW, CHY, CIG, CII, CIM, CINR, CLM, CMU, CPTA, CRF, CSQ, CXE, CY, CYS, DBL, DDF, DEX, DFP, DHF, DHY, DIAX, DMO, DNP, DSL, DSM, DSU, DTE, DVY, DWDP, EAD, ECC, ECH, EDF, EFR, EFT, EGPT, EIDO, EIRL, EIS, EMCF, ENZL, EOI, EOS, EPHE, EPU, ERH, ERUS, ETB, ETG, ETO, ETV, ETW, ETY, EVF, EVG, EVN, EVT, EWA, EWC, EWD, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWK, EWL, EWM, EWN, EWO, EWP, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWY, EWZ, EXG, EZA, FAF, FDUS, FEN, FFA, FFC, FGD, FIF, FLC, FMN, FNF, FOF, FPF, FRA, FREL, FSD, FTF, FXI, GAB, GAIN, GAM, GBAB, GDO, GDV, GF, GGT, GLAD, GLO, GLOP, GLU, GOF, GPM, GREK, GRF, GSBD, GUT, GXG, HCFT, HE, HEI, HIX, HPF, HPI, HPS, HQH, HQL, HRZN, HTD, HTGC, HYB, HYG, HYI, HYT, IAK, IDE, IFN, IGA, IGD, IGI, IGM, IGN, IGV, IHI, IIF, IQDE, IQI, IRL, IRT, ISD, ITA, IUSG, IVH, IVW, IWF, IWP, IXN, IYC, IYJ, IYLD, IYW, JCE, JFR, JHB, JHY, JKE, JKH, JLS, JMM, JMT, JOF, JPC, JPI, JPS, JQC, JRI, JRO, JSD, JTD, KBWY, KIO, KNOP, KRP, KSA, LDP, LEO, LGI, LOAN, LOR, MAIN, MAV, MCC, MDB, MFA, MFM, MFT, MGF, MGU, MHD, MHI, MITT, MMD, MMU, MPV, MRCC, MUA, MYF, NAD, NBH, NCLH, NCZ, NEWT, NGE, NHF, NHS, NMZ, NORW, NQP, NRO, NRZ, NSA, NSL, NTB, NVG, NYMT, NZF, OIA, ORC, OSB, OXLC, OXSQ, PCI, PCM, PCN, PCQ, PDI, PDT, PFD, PFL, PFLT, PFN, PFO, PGAL, PGZ, PHD, PHK, PHT, PIM, PIN, PKO, PLND, PMF, PML, PMM, PMO, PMX, PNNT, PRGTX, PSEC, PSF, PSJ, PTF, PTY, PZC, QQQX, QTS, RA, RCKY, RCL, RCS, RFI, RIF, RMT, RNP, RQI, RVT, SAMG, SAR, SBI, SCM, SJR, SOHO, SOXX, SPHD, SPXX, SPY, STK, SUNS, TCPC, TDF, THD, TLI, TPZ, TUR, TWHIX, TWN, TWO, TWSAX, UAE, USA, UTF, UTG, VAGIX, VGI, VGR, VIG, VKQ, VLT, VMO, VNM, VOD, VPV, VTA, WEA, WPG, XMMO, ZF, ZTR
So now I run all of those symbols 12 at a time through the Perfcharts on Stockcharts.com
I look at the past year chart, and compare it the doubled benchmarks, and pick out the top performers. When that is done, I get a list of symbols that warrant further scrutiny.
For this, I use my setup on the old thinkorswim software, now renamed as thinkTDA. I link to my setup on my blogroll.
I use 6 different time frames; 5 years (3 days), 4 years (3 days), 3 years (2 days), 2 years (daily), 9 month (daily), & 3 month (daily). There are also linear regression channels depicting other time frames within each time frame that help me drill drown visually and quickly to see patterns that help me determine which symbols or holdings might be worth holding.
Here’s what the 6 time frames look like;
You can see clearly how things look over the different time frames, whether the price is moving up or down, or remaining fairly steady.
Each window can be enlarged for further scrutiny, and here we see 4 different channels (2 years, 1-1/2 years, 1 year, & 6 months).
Now this chart is pretty ‘busy’, but it tells me a lot. There are five different time frame channels here, and many different indicators. It’s far too detailed for this post, but let’s just say it’s very detailed.
After all this work is done, I come up with a final list of symbols for either further scrutiny, or perhaps, to invest.
I go through that list at my leisure.
I find this method of technical analysis saves me a lot of time when it comes to doing fundamental analysis, which is another necessary part of investing. Some investors start with the fundamentals, and never get to the technicals. Some start with fundamental and move to technical later. Some do it the other way around. I find this works for me. You have to find the way that works for you.
This is only a part of one method. Take a look at the individual account tabs on my Google sheets (and don’t forget to scroll down, and scroll right!) and you’ll see other methods. I also follow good advice from others, while discounting bad advice. After a while, you can tell fairly easily which is which…
As always, YMMV!
PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND REMEMBER THIS!
I’m not telling anyone to buy anything or giving anyone any advice, because that’s illegal. You see, I have no letters after my name, like RIA, CFA, etc. I SIMPLY DO NOT GIVE ADVICE. I only tell (and show!) what I do. You, like me, are all alone in this.
And remember, always do your own due diligence!