#HYHRD Watch List for July 13th $CVI $DDF $GUT $HTD $MPW $MUA $OUT $PML $PSJ $PTF $RNP $UTF $UTG

Howdy, Y’all!

3andme

I’m Pat Rosenheim, a.k.a. the PandA Trader.

This Watch List Update will be issued monthly, or as warranted. These results focus more on closed end funds and ETFs than other issues. This will also be the focus on a “go-forward” basis.

Hindsight can be 20/20, foresight not so much.

I can’t always “hit it out of the park”, but below are my targets.

My expectations for the #HYHRD (High Yield High Return Dividend) Portfolio:

I target a minimal annual return on price and NAV (both `10%?) and a minimum 5% dividend yield for income, or total annualized performance of 15% or greater.

I am hitting some of my targets, and regularly harvest and reinvest (or withdraw) gains.

Title of this post is not all-inclusive of securities selected for further scrutiny…

What follows is one of my methods to screen for possible addition to the watch lists, and the one I am currently using;

I modified the procedures slightly since my last post, and now look for 2 key data points; annualized return and distribution yield, or Total Return. I find both of these combined in the free PerfCharts on stockcharts.com. These charts look for Total Return, which includes dividends in addition to simple return. But, those charts look at the results after screening. I should probably tell you how I go about screening for stocks, CEFs, & ETFs. Good idea?

I eliminated barcharts.com and finviz.com from my screening repertoire for the most part because their results weren’t consistent enough, IMO. I was getting too much crap to look at and frankly it was just a waste of time, so I’m sticking with Fidelity for screening, and you only need to register with them to use their site to screen for stocks, ETFs, and CEFs. I’m also sticking with cefconnect.com for CEFs, although their data does tend to be lacking in some respects. For the most part, however, it is a respectable source for mostly reliable CEF data. Now, let’s move on…

Here’s my (overly tough?) criteria & (subsequent lack of) results on Fidelity for stock screening;

fidstock

Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for ETF screening;

fidetf

Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for Municipal CEF screening;

fidmunicef

Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for CEF screening;

fidcef

Here’s my criteria & results on Fidelity for CEF by asset class screening;

fidcefasset

Whew!

Now, let’s move on to cefconnect.com;

Here’s my results from screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 7%;

cefconn1

Here’s my results from screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 0% for tax-free CEFs;

cefconn2

So now, we have the results from our screens;

CVI,DDF,GUT,MPW,OUT,UTG and (IWP,ITA,IYW,IHI,IGV,IGM,SOXX & IYC,XMMO,JKH,PSJ,PTF,IAK) and DDF,UTF,UTG,CET and PML,PCQ,MUA,BTA,NZF,NMZ,BSD,PMO and (BME,CSQ,UTF,RNP,PSF,STK,DNP,EOS,ETO,EVT,GRF & FPF,HTD,USA,PCM,PTY,PCN,PDI,PKO,PFL,PGZ,DMO) and MYF,BFK,MFT,DSM,VKQ,VPV,NBH and DSM,VPV,NBH,NMZ,PML,MHI

So, I put them all together and then remove the duplicates and sort them in alphabetical order. On my spreadsheet, there’s a tab labeled ‘remove duplicates in C1’. I paste the whole comma-delimited list into the cell ‘C1’ and the results are automatically sorted alphabetically into cell ‘C4’. You can copy the formula if you like, it’s;

=join(“, “,SORT(UNIQUE(TRANSPOSE(SPLIT($C$1,“, “)))))”

Then we check the 1 year charts on stockcharts.com!

(updated list with duplicates removed)

BFK, BME, BSD, BTA, CET, CSQ, CVI, DDF, DMO, DNP, DSM, EOS, ETO, EVT, FPF, GRF, GUT, HTD, IAK, IGM, IGV, IHI, ITA, IWP, IYC, IYW, JKH, MFT, MHI, MPW, MUA, MYF, NBH, NMZ, NZF, OUT, PCM, PCN, PCQ, PDI, PFL, PGZ, PKO, PML, PMO, PSF, PSJ, PTF, PTY, RNP, SOXX, STK, USA, UTF, UTG, VKQ, VPV, XMMO

We still need to compare it to our baseline.

To get a baseline, let’s look at the indexes (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) over the past year;

stockcharts (with permalink) https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$COMPQ,$INDU,$SPX&p=5&O=111000

Click the link and you can see the current performance of these benchmarks (opens in a new window).

We can see the current performances as of this writing;

  • Nasdaq $COMPQ @ 5.37%
  • S&P 500 $SPX @ 7.70%
  • DJIA $INDU @ 9.66%

These results give us our numbers to beat for this screening & watch list post (5.37% 9.66%) – for the past 252 trading days (1 year). Then, I double those figures. So, I’m looking to beat 10.74% – 19.32%, so let’s just say 20%, ok?

Hey, have you heard the one about “past performance is no indication of future results”?

Here’s the chart of the final results of screening after removing duplicates and running through the charting;

This is the chart I’ll use (you can use it, too!); https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$INDU&p=5&O=011000

Just replace the symbol with up to 12 symbols (separated by commas!), right click the date slider and select one year (or any time frame you like) and chart away! The result is share price appreciation plus dividends for the time frame selected.

Now, as promised, this is the results of charting the screening results;

stockcharts

stockchartsa

I have that nifty feature on my Google sheets for sorting and trimming and removing duplicates from my comma-delimited list of symbols so I’m going to take full advantage of that. I add the list of symbols I just got the below list and sort them

I now have this new list of symbols (including currently owned);

AB, ABBV, ABR, ACP, ADX, AEE, AFG, AFT, AGD, AGNC, AGR, AINV, ANGL, ANH, AOD, APO, ARCC, ARDC, ARGT, ARI, ARR, ASG, AWF, AWP, BBK, BBN, BCE, BDJ, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BGB, BGCP, BGH, BGT, BGX, BHBK, BHK, BIF, BIT, BKN, BKT, BLW, BME, BOE, BSD, BSL, BST, BTA, BTO, BTZ, BUI, BXMT, BXMX, CAF, CCD, CCL, CCOI, CET, CG, CHCT, CHGG, CHI, CHW, CHY, CIG, CII, CIM, CINR, CLM, CMU, CPTA, CRF, CSQ, CVI, CXE, CY, CYS, DBL, DDF, DEX, DFP, DHF, DHY, DIAX, DMO, DNP, DSL, DSM, DSU, DTE, DVY, DWDP, EAD, ECC, ECH, EDF, EFR, EFT, EGPT, EIDO, EIRL, EIS, EMCF, ENZL, EOI, EOS, EPHE, EPU, ERH, ERUS, ETB, ETG, ETO, ETV, ETW, ETY, EVF, EVG, EVN, EVT, EWA, EWC, EWD, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWK, EWL, EWM, EWN, EWO, EWP, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWY, EWZ, EXG, EZA, FAF, FDUS, FEN, FFA, FFC, FGD, FIF, FLC, FMN, FNF, FOF, FPF, FRA, FREL, FSD, FTF, FXI, GAB, GAIN, GAM, GBAB, GDO, GDV, GF, GGT, GLAD, GLO, GLOP, GLU, GOF, GPM, GREK, GRF, GSBD, GUT, GXG, HCFT, HE, HEI, HIX, HPF, HPI, HPS, HQH, HQL, HRZN, HTD, HTGC, HYB, HYG, HYI, HYT, IAK, IDE, IFN, IGA, IGD, IGI, IGM, IGN, IGV, IHI, IIF, IQDE, IQI, IRL, IRT, ISD, ITA, IUSG, IVH, IVW, IWF, IWP, IXN, IYC, IYJ, IYLD, IYW, JCE, JFR, JHB, JHY, JKE, JKH, JLS, JMM, JMT, JOF, JPC, JPI, JPS, JQC, JRI, JRO, JSD, JTD, KBWY, KIO, KNOP, KRP, KSA, LDP, LEO, LGI, LOAN, LOR, MAIN, MAV, MCC, MDB, MFA, MFM, MFT, MGF, MGU, MHD, MHI, MITT, MMD, MMU, MPV, MPW, MRCC, MUA, MYF, NAD, NBH, NCLH, NCZ, NEWT, NGE, NHF, NHS, NMZ, NORW, NQP, NRO, NRZ, NSA, NSL, NTB, NVG, NYMT, NZF, OIA, ORC, OSB, OUT, OXLC, OXSQ, PCI, PCM, PCN, PCQ, PDI, PDT, PFD, PFL, PFLT, PFN, PFO, PGAL, PGZ, PHD, PHK, PHT, PIM, PIN, PKO, PLND, PMF, PML, PMM, PMO, PMX, PNNT, PRGTX, PSEC, PSF, PSJ, PTF, PTY, PZC, QQQX, QTS, RA, RCKY, RCL, RCS, RFI, RIF, RMT, RNP, RQI, RVT, SAMG, SAR, SBI, SCM, SJR, SOHO, SOXX, SPHD, SPXX, SPY, STK, SUNS, TCPC, TDF, THD, TLI, TPZ, TUR, TWHIX, TWN, TWO, TWSAX, UAE, USA, UTF, UTG, VAGIX, VGI, VGR, VIG, VKQ, VLT, VMO, VNM, VOD, VPV, VTA, WEA, WPG, XMMO, ZF, ZTR

So now I run all of those symbols 12 at a time through the Perfcharts on Stockcharts.com

I look at the past year chart, and compare it to the doubled benchmarks, and pick out the top performers. When that is done, I get a list of symbols that warrant further scrutiny.

For this, I use my setup on the old thinkorswim software, now renamed as thinkTDA. I have a link to my setup on my blogroll if you’re so inclined.

I use 6 different time frames; 5 years (3 days), 4 years (3 days), 3 years (2 days), 2 years (daily), 9 month (daily), & 3 month (daily). There are also linear regression channels depicting other time frames within each time frame that help me drill drown visually and quickly to see patterns that help me determine which symbols or holdings might be worth holding.

Here’s what the 6 time frames look like;

think

You can see clearly how things look over the different time frames, whether the price is moving up or down, or remaining fairly steady.

thinkorswim

Each window can be enlarged for further scrutiny, and here we see 4 different channels (2 years, 1-1/2 years, 1 year, & 6 months).

thinktda

Now this chart is pretty ‘busy’, but it tells me a lot. There are five different time frame channels here, and many different indicators. It’s far too detailed for this post, but let’s just say it’s very detailed.

After all this work is done, I come up with a final list of symbols for either further scrutiny, or perhaps, to invest.

I go through this new list at my leisure.

I find this method of technical analysis saves me a lot of time when it comes to doing fundamental analysis, which is another necessary part of investing. Some investors start with the fundamentals, and never get to the technicals. Some start with fundamental and move to technical later. Some do it the other way around. I find this works for me. You have to find the way that works for you.

This is only a part of one method. Take a look at the individual account tabs on my Google sheets (and don’t forget to scroll down, and scroll right!) and you’ll see other methods. I also follow good advice from others, while discounting bad advice. After a while, you can tell fairly easily which is which…

I’ve brought this one back, because I think it’s worthy of mention;

Another very good system used to time purchases and sales is the “Elder Impulse System”; http://schrts.co/qkCphQXr (I’ve added MACD Histogram, 20-50-200 day Simple Moving Averages, ADX Line (w/+DI and -DI), and Ulcer Index (UI) to enhance the chart. Play around, learn about it, and try it out!

Stay tuned!

As always, YMMV!

PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND REMEMBER THIS!

I’m not telling anyone to buy anything or giving anyone any advice, because that’s illegal. You see, I have no letters after my name, like RIA, CFA, etc. I SIMPLY DO NOT GIVE ADVICE. I only tell (and show!) what I do. You, like me, are all alone in this.

And remember, always do your own due diligence!

panda_wildePat Rosenheim
(PandA Trader)
High Yield, High Return Dividend
Portfolio
pat@patrosenheim.com
http://www.HYHRD.com
pandawalk

 

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About PandA Trader

I am, I think... "Disobedience, in the eyes of anyone who has read history, is man's original virtue. It is through disobedience and rebellion that progress has been made." -- Oscar Wilde
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