I’m Pat Rosenheim, a.k.a. the PandA Trader.
This Watch List Update will be issued monthly, or as warranted. These results focus more on closed end funds and ETFs than other issues. This will also be the focus on a “go-forward” basis.
*** SPECIAL NOTE *** : THIS POST WAS DELAYED, BUT ALL RESULTS WERE OBTAINED ON 8/25/19 – SEE BOTTOM OF POST FOR REASON WHY THIS POST WAS DELAYED. THANK YOU AND APOLOGIES IN ADVANCE AND IN ARREARS.
Hindsight can be 20/20, foresight not so much.
I can’t always “hit it out of the park”, but below are my targets.
My expectations for the #HYHRD (High Yield High Return Dividend) Portfolio:
I target a minimal annual return on price and NAV (both `10%?) and a minimum 5% dividend yield for income, or total annualized performance of 15% or greater.
I am hitting some of my targets, and regularly harvest and reinvest (or withdraw) gains.
Title of this post is not all-inclusive of securities selected for further scrutiny and/or analysis…
What follows is one of my methods to screen for possible addition to the watch lists, and the one I am currently using;
I modified the procedures slightly since my last post, and now look for 2 key data points; annualized return and distribution yield, or Total Return. I find both of these combined in the free PerfCharts on stockcharts.com. These charts look for Total Return, which includes dividends in addition to simple return. But, those charts look at the results after screening. I should probably tell you how I go about screening for stocks, CEFs, & ETFs. Good idea?
I partially eliminated barcharts.com and finviz.com from my screening repertoire for the most part because their results weren’t consistent enough, IMO. I was getting too much crap to look at and frankly it was just a waste of time, so I’m sticking with Fidelity (again, for the most part) for screening, and you only need to register with them to use their site to screen for stocks, ETFs, and CEFs. I still have to cherry-pick the stocks Fidelity screens for me, because I do not want K-1’s and I don’t feel I should be burdened with paying a corporate tax or even filing a damned return. I’m also sticking with cefconnect.com for CEFs, although their data does tend to be lacking in some respects. For the most part, however, it is a respectable source for mostly reliable CEF data. Now, let’s move on…
NOTE: These criteria probably won’t change much, only the results will be different. If you’re only interested in the results, you can skip these screenshots.
Here’s my (overly tough?) criteria & (therefore subsequent lack of) results on Fidelity for stock screening;
Here’s my criteria on Fidelity for ETF screening;
Here’s my criteria on Fidelity for Municipal CEF screening;
Here’s my criteria on Fidelity for CEF screening;
Here’s my criteria on Fidelity for CEF by asset class screening;
Now, let’s move on to cefconnect.com;
Here’s my criteria for screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 7%;
Here’s my criteria for screening on cefconnect for distributions above 5% and 1, 3, & 5 year annualized return on price & NAV above 0% for tax-free CEFs;
So now, we have the results from our screens;
barchart (cherry-picked) – IRT
finviz (cherry-picked) – ABDC,BRG,MPV,OHI,PEGI,PLYM,TPVG
fidelity stock (cherry-picked) – BX,AVGO
fidelity etf – IHI,PPA,PSJ,REZ,XSD,PTF
fidelity cef – UTF,PML,DNP,ECF
fidelity muni cef – PML,PCQ,BTA,PMO,MUA,NZF,MMU
fidelity asset class – UTG,UTF,DDF,PML,PCQ,HPI,HPF,BTA,PMO,MUA,NZF,MMU
cefconnect – BBN,UTF,RQI,RNP,PSF,STK,DNP and FPF,HTD,PTY,PKO,PGZ,DMO
cefconnect muni – DSM
interactions with others – DHR, ROP, USMV, SPLV, PEY, SHOP
So, I put them all together and then remove the duplicates and sort them in alphabetical order. On my spreadsheet, there’s a tab labeled ‘remove duplicates in C1’. I paste the whole comma-delimited list into the cell ‘C1’ and the results are automatically sorted alphabetically into cell ‘C4’. You can copy the formula if you like, it’s;
“=join(“, “,SORT(UNIQUE(TRANSPOSE(SPLIT($C$1,“, “)))))”
Then we check the 1 year charts on stockcharts.com!
(updated list with duplicates removed)
ABDC, AVGO, BBN, BRG, BTA, BX, DDF, DHR, DMO, DNP, DSM, ECF, FPF, HPF, HPI, HTD, IHI, IRT, MMU, MPV, MUA, NZF, OHI, PCQ, PEGI, PEY, PGZ, PKO, PLYM, PML, PMO, PPA, PSF, PSJ, PTF, PTY, REZ, RNP, ROP, RQI, SHOP, SPLV, STK, TPVG, USMV, UTF, UTG, XSD
We still need to compare it to our baseline.
To get a baseline, let’s look at the indexes (Nasdaq, DJIA, S&P 500) over the past year (this chart changes, click the link for current values);
Click the link and you can see the current performance of these benchmarks (opens in a new window).
We can see the current performances as of this writing;
- Nasdaq $COMPQ @ -1.61%
- DJIA $INDU @ -0.11%
- S&P 500 $SPX @ -0.35%
These results give us our numbers to beat for this screening & watch list post (-1.61% – -.011%) – for the past 252 trading days (1 year).
Then, I double those figures. So, since they’re all negative numbers let’s just say 20%, ok?
Hey, have you heard the one about “past performance is no indication of future results”?
Here’s the chart of the final results of screening after removing duplicates and running through the charting;
This is the chart I’ll use (you can use it, too!); https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$INDU&p=5&O=011000
Just replace the symbol with up to 12 symbols (separated by commas!), right click the date slider and select one year (or any time frame you like) and chart away! The result is share price appreciation plus dividends for the time frame selected.
Now, as promised, this is the results of charting the screening results shown two different ways;
First, a visual representation of price action over the past year;
Next, a visual representation of Total Performance as a percentage over the past year;
I have that nifty feature on my Google sheets for sorting and trimming and removing duplicates from my comma-delimited list of symbols so I’m going to take full advantage of that. I add the list of symbols I just got to the list below and sort them.
I now have this new list of symbols (including currently owned);
AB, ABBV, ABDC, ABR, ACP, ADX, AEE, AFG, AFT, AGD, AGNC, AGR, AINV, AMD, AMT, ANGL, ANH, AOD, APO, ARCC, ARDC, ARGT, ARI, ARR, ASG, ATLC, AVGO, AWF, AWP, AWR, BBK, BBN, BCE, BDJ, BF/A, BF/B, BFK, BGB, BGCP, BGH, BGT, BGX, BHBK, BHK, BIF, BIT, BKN, BKT, BLW, BME, BOE, BRG, BSD, BSL, BST, BTA, BTO, BTZ, BUI, BX, BXMT, BXMX, CAF, CCD, CCL, CCOI, CET, CG, CHCT, CHE, CHGG, CHI, CHW, CHY, CIG, CII, CIM, CINR, CLM, CME, CMU, CORR, CPTA, CRF, CSGP, CSPI, CSQ, CVI, CXE, CY, CYRX, CYS, DBL, DDF, DEX, DFP, DHF, DHR, DHY, DIAX, DMO, DNP, DSL, DSM, DSU, DTE, DVY, DWDP, EAD, ECC, ECF, ECH, EDF, EFR, EFT, EGPT, EIDO, EIRL, EIS, ELS, EMCF, ENZL, EOI, EOS, EPHE, EPU, ERH, ERUS, ETB, ETG, ETO, ETV, ETW, ETY, EVF, EVG, EVN, EVT, EWA, EWC, EWD, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWK, EWL, EWM, EWN, EWO, EWP, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWY, EWZ, EXG, EZA, FAF, FCAU, FDUS, FEN, FFA, FFC, FGD, FIF, FLC, FMN, FNF, FOF, FPF, FRA, FREL, FSD, FTF, FXI, G, GAB, GAIN, GAM, GBAB, GDO, GDV, GF, GGT, GLAD, GLO, GLOP, GLU, GOF, GPM, GREK, GRF, GSBD, GUT, GXG, HCFT, HE, HEI, HIX, HPF, HPI, HPS, HQH, HQL, HRZN, HTD, HTGC, HYB, HYG, HYI, HYT, IAK, IDE, IFN, IGA, IGD, IGI, IGM, IGN, IGV, IHI, IIF, IQDE, IQI, IRL, IRT, ISD, ITA, IUSG, IVH, IVW, IWF, IWP, IXN, IYC, IYJ, IYLD, IYW, JCE, JFR, JHB, JHY, JKE, JKH, JLS, JMM, JMT, JOF, JPC, JPI, JPS, JQC, JRI, JRO, JSD, JTD, KAR, KBWY, KIO, KNOP, KRP, KSA, LDP, LEO, LGI, LOAN, LOR, LUNA, MAIN, MAV, MCC, MCD, MDB, MELI, MFA, MFM, MFT, MGF, MGU, MHD, MHI, MITT, MKC, MMD, MMU, MPV, MPW, MRCC, MUA, MYF, NAD, NBH, NCLH, NCZ, NEWT, NGE, NHF, NHS, NMZ, NORW, NQP, NRO, NRZ, NSA, NSL, NTB, NVG, NYMT, NZF, OHI, OIA, ORC, OSB, OUT, OXLC, OXSQ, PCI, PCM, PCN, PCQ, PDI, PDT, PEGI, PEY, PFD, PFL, PFLT, PFN, PFO, PGAL, PGZ, PHD, PHK, PHT, PIM, PIN, PKO, PLND, PLYM, PMF, PML, PMM, PMO, PMX, PNNT, PODD, PPA, PRGTX, PRO, PSEC, PSF, PSJ, PTF, PTY, PZC, QQQX, QTS, QTWO, RA, RCKY, RCL, RCS, REZ, RFI, RGLD, RIF, RMT, RNP, ROP, RQI, RVT, SACH, SAMG, SAR, SBI, SCM, SHOP, SJR, SOHO, SOXX, SPHD, SPLV, SPXX, SPY, STK, SUI, SUNS, SYK, TAIT, TCPC, TDF, TERP, THD, TLI, TNAV, TPVG, TPZ, TUR, TWHIX, TWN, TWO, TWSAX, UAE, USA, USMV, UTF, UTG, VAGIX, VER, VGI, VGR, VIG, VKQ, VLT, VMO, VNM, VOD, VPV, VTA, WEA, WEC, WILC, WM, WPG, XMMO, XSD, ZF, ZTR, ZTS
So now I run all of those symbols 12 at a time through the Perfcharts on Stockcharts.com
I look at the past year chart, and compare it to the doubled benchmarks, and pick out the top performers. When that is done, I get a list of symbols that warrant further scrutiny.
For this, I use my setup on the old thinkorswim software, now renamed as thinkTDA. I have a link to my setup on my blogroll if you’re so inclined.
I use 6 different time frames; 5 years (3 days), 4 years (3 days), 3 years (2 days), 2 years (daily), 9 month (daily), & 3 month (daily). There are also linear regression channels depicting other time frames within each time frame that help me drill drown visually and quickly to see patterns that help me determine which symbols or holdings might be worth holding.
Here’s what the 6 time frames look like;
You can see clearly how things look over the different time frames, whether the price is moving up or down, or remaining fairly steady.
Each window can be enlarged for further scrutiny, and here we see 4 different channels (2 years, 1-1/2 years, 1 year, & 6 months).
Now this chart is pretty ‘busy’, but it tells me a lot. There are five different time frame channels here, and many different indicators. It’s far too detailed for this post, but let’s just say it’s very detailed.
After all this work is done, I come up with a final list of symbols for either further scrutiny, or perhaps, to invest.
I go through this new list at my leisure.
I find this method of technical analysis saves me a lot of time when it comes to doing fundamental analysis, which is another necessary part of investing. Some investors start with the fundamentals, and never get to the technicals. Some start with fundamental and move to technical later. Some do it the other way around. I find this works for me. You have to find the way that works for you.
This just in from the “There’s always an update” News Desk!; When investing in a #CEF you must *ALWAYS* be aware of the *historical* and *current* discount or premium (to #NAV). This is *important* as it may portend an upcoming #RO (or Rights Offering) that might absolutely *slay* the share price of the #CEF in question. I CANNOT EMPHASIZE THIS ENOUGH!
This is only a part of one method. Take a look at the individual account tabs on my Google sheets (and don’t forget to scroll down, and scroll right!) and you’ll see other methods. I also follow good advice from others, while discounting bad advice. After a while, you can tell fairly easily which is which…
Before I close, I wanted to show you a few more things.
I’ve brought this one back, because I think it’s worthy of mention;
Another very good system used to time purchases and sales is the “Elder Impulse System”; http://schrts.co/qkCphQXr (I’ve added MACD Histogram, 20-50-200 day Simple Moving Averages, ADX Line (w/+DI and -DI), and Ulcer Index (UI) to enhance the chart). Play around, learn about it, and try it out!
And, this is another chart from stockcharts.com;
This is just their Perfchart that I’ve modified slightly. http://schrts.co/KWjqBjYv (I’ve added Stochastics RSI and Price Performance to the Indicators on the bottom to show above the chart. Also, to the overlays I’ve changed the Simple Moving Avg 200 to Exp. Moving Avg 90 and added Pivot Points). Again, play around, learn about it, and try it out!
When you change the symbol at the top of this chart, you should probably also change the symbol at the bottom, in the Indicators section to match. Or, you could use an index like $SPX or $INDU or $COMPQ if you like. Your choice!
This one is perfect for figuring out price targets. The Point and Figure charts (either Daily or Weekly) will *sometimes* do that for you! (I’ve added the Simple Moving Avg 20 to the existing Simple Moving Avg 5 and Trend Lines Overlays) http://schrts.co/PezvWzeA Have Fun!
I’ve also started screening using technical indicators for; stocks, ETFs, and CEFs. Look for the results on Stocktwits, but not here, sorry!
I’d be too afraid of getting complaints about “too many blog posts” again.
In fact, that’s why this post was delayed, for over a week!
As always, YMMV!
PLEASE TAKE NOTE AND REMEMBER THIS!
I’m not telling anyone to buy anything or giving anyone any advice, because that’s illegal. You see, I have no letters after my name, like RIA, CFA, etc. I SIMPLY DO NOT GIVE ADVICE. I only tell (and show!) what I do. You, like me, are all alone in this.
And remember, always do your own due diligence!